Cruise executives have used major industry conventions over the past two months to tout plans for continued rapid expansion in the face of dramatically increasing hordes of customers.
Guests will find more shiny new ships from which to chose, with the latest resort features on the 5,000 passenger behemoths. Small ships carrying the new sweet spot of about 300 passengers will enjoy real quasi-yacht amenities and more professional expedition gear.
And latest earnings reports among publicly-held corporations have supported-- and stock prices have reflected-- all the talk of a long term boom for cruise lines.
Shipbuilding companies have been buoyed by orders for scores of new ships that will be delivered over the next 10 years. This will increase worldwide cruise passenger capacity by 40 percent or more.
The executives' optimism is based in large part on the expectation that more vacationers will chose cruising, instead of a road trip to Disneyland, and self-select themselves onto a simpatico cruise line.
Of course, pressing this are traditional advertising, paid social media "influencers," and marketing channels from storefront neighborhood travel agents to massive online cruise sellers.
But what struck us most was the stance of many cruise lines that there will be more than enough passengers to go around. That's the politic thing to say when you're on a conference panel with CEO's of your competitors.
Yet, if we put on our marketing hat, we suspect what is ahead is an increasingly competitive marketplace as new ships add millions of "bed nights" to inventory and, sooner or later, the U.S. and global business cycles begin their predictable sinking.
It may be way early to call a change in the cycle, but there are indicators that cruise buyers can follow and use to their advantage.
At the mass market end, some brands are increasing the voyages for which they promote "free" beverage packages or round-trip economy air or at least a meal in a "fine dining" restaurant. Sometimes the cost of these is simply added to the asking price, but shop carefully and you will find real values that pit one cruise line against another filling those last dozen or hundred or thousand cabins.
For luxury customers, there are choices as more and better small ships are added to leisurely and adventurous itineraries. This new competition already seems to be influencing rates-- in both directions. Yes, some of the newest and best are priced beyond our reach, targeted to customers who, as we like to say, "have too much money."
Self-identified "luxury" cruise lines have a price point in mind, which varies by their definition of all inclusive, season, region of the world, and popularity of itinerary. Let's speculate that a typical goal is $800 per person per night for a base category suite.
Just in the past month, we have found and recommended specific desirable sailings on some of these luxury-rated cruise lines at half or a quarter of that price.
Further, an all-inclusive night in a 300 square foot veranda suite for about $200-$250 puts these high-end ships in direct price competition with a lesser cabin on their sister brand mid-market cruise lines, owned by the same corporations.
The winner, at least for now, is you the avid cruise customer.
Guests will find more shiny new ships from which to chose, with the latest resort features on the 5,000 passenger behemoths. Small ships carrying the new sweet spot of about 300 passengers will enjoy real quasi-yacht amenities and more professional expedition gear.
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| Ritz Carlton Yacht Collection, 298 Passengers, Begins Sailing February 2019 |
Shipbuilding companies have been buoyed by orders for scores of new ships that will be delivered over the next 10 years. This will increase worldwide cruise passenger capacity by 40 percent or more.
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| Royal Caribbean 6,000 Passenger Symphony of the Seas |
Of course, pressing this are traditional advertising, paid social media "influencers," and marketing channels from storefront neighborhood travel agents to massive online cruise sellers.
But what struck us most was the stance of many cruise lines that there will be more than enough passengers to go around. That's the politic thing to say when you're on a conference panel with CEO's of your competitors.
Yet, if we put on our marketing hat, we suspect what is ahead is an increasingly competitive marketplace as new ships add millions of "bed nights" to inventory and, sooner or later, the U.S. and global business cycles begin their predictable sinking.
 |
| Regent Splendor 3,000 Sq. Ft. Suite, 1,400 Sq. Ft. Balcony |
At the mass market end, some brands are increasing the voyages for which they promote "free" beverage packages or round-trip economy air or at least a meal in a "fine dining" restaurant. Sometimes the cost of these is simply added to the asking price, but shop carefully and you will find real values that pit one cruise line against another filling those last dozen or hundred or thousand cabins.
For luxury customers, there are choices as more and better small ships are added to leisurely and adventurous itineraries. This new competition already seems to be influencing rates-- in both directions. Yes, some of the newest and best are priced beyond our reach, targeted to customers who, as we like to say, "have too much money."
Self-identified "luxury" cruise lines have a price point in mind, which varies by their definition of all inclusive, season, region of the world, and popularity of itinerary. Let's speculate that a typical goal is $800 per person per night for a base category suite.
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| Launching 2020: Crystal Endeavor purpose-built Polar Class ship |
Further, an all-inclusive night in a 300 square foot veranda suite for about $200-$250 puts these high-end ships in direct price competition with a lesser cabin on their sister brand mid-market cruise lines, owned by the same corporations.
The winner, at least for now, is you the avid cruise customer.
Thank you. This sort of sums it all up in my mind. Smaller - YES! Lower pricing for the smart consumer - YES, YES!
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